🖍️Outlier Sales

Outlier detecting and adjusting functionality of the Bee Forecast & Replenishment.

What are Outlier Sales?

Outlier sales refer to sales data points that significantly deviate from the typical sales patterns. These can be unusually high sales figures that do not align with the expected trends. Outliers can be caused by factors such as wholesales, seasonal promotions, or other exceptional circumstances.

Why is it Important to Detect and Adjust Outlier Sales in Forecasting?

Detecting and adjusting outlier sales is crucial for accurate sales forecasting. If outlier sales are not detected and adjusted, it can result in overestimating demand. This can lead to overstocking, which increases inventory costs and ties up capital.

How Does the Merchbees Outlier Algorithm Work and How Does It Affect Forecasting?

The Merchbees outlier algorithm analyzes the sales data for each variant-location combination over the past 90 days. It identifies the daily sales pattern for the item at the specific location and detects sales that deviate from this pattern.

When calculating the forecast, the detected outlier sales are excluded. Instead, for the days with outliers, the highest non-outlier daily sales quantity for that item at the respective location is included as the adjusted sales in the forecast calculation.

On the Outliers page,

• The Sales Quantity column shows the total sales that occurred on that day for the specific location-variant.

• The Outlier column indicates how many sales were identified as outliers.

For example, if the Sales Quantity is 50 and the Outlier is 48, then the Adjusted Sales would be 50-48=2. This means that for forecasting purposes, it is considered as if there were 2 sales on that day.

In the forecast algorithm, outlier adjusting is done if the "Eliminate outlier sales" checkbox is selected on the Settings page. If you want to include outlier sales in the forecast, you can uncheck this checkbox.

👋 If you have a different need for a forecast, please don't hesitate to contact us! We are always here to help! You can say hello with live chat on merchbees.com or send an email to [email protected].