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Forecast Algorithm

Merchbees look at recent sales and stockout information when generating a forecast. We use the last 30 days when the product had available inventory to calculate the sales velocity.
  1. 1.
    We look at sales and stock over the last 30 days.
  2. 2.
    If the product went out of stock during the last 30 days, we would look at the nearest 30 days when the stock was available in 90 days to calculate the sales velocity.
  3. 3.
    If the product had less than 30 in-stock days, the forecast is calculated as total sales/ number of in-stock days. Note: if the number of in-stock days is <= 7, we divide total sales over 7 days by default.
There are two exceptional cases in which we do not use stockout information; 'new accounts' and 'continue selling when out-of-stock products'.

New accounts

Merchbees starts to keep inventory history when you connect Merchbees to your store. Since we cannot see past inventory data, in the first month the forecast is calculated as average sales for the last 30 days. After we have inventory history for the last 30 days, Merchbees start to use stockout information to apply the forecasting algorithm above.
Note for old customers: If you install the application before November 6, 2022, we start to keep inventory history after you subscribe to Enterprise+ Plan and give access to order data.

Continue selling when out-of-stock products

Since these products can be sellable independent of inventory on hand. Merchbees do not use stock-out information for these types of products. The forecast is calculated as average sales for the last 30 days for them.

New products ( For new accounts and continue products)

If the age of a variant is less than 30 days, the forecast is calculated as the total sales/ variant age. If the variant age is <= 7, we divide total sales over 7 days by default. The variant age is calculated based on the 'created at' date.
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If you have a different need for a forecast, please don't hesitate to contact us! We are always here to help! You can say hello with live chat on merchbees.com or send an email to [email protected].
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